ar X iv : a st ro - p h / 05 11 41 9 v 1 1 4 N ov 2 00 5 The Proximity of Mercury ’ s Spin to Cassini State 1

In determining Mercury's core structure from its rotational properties, the value of the normalized moment of inertia, C/MR 2 , from the location of Cassini 1 is crucial. If Mercury's spin axis occupies Cassini state 1, its position defines the location of the state, where the axis is fixed in the frame precessing with the orbit. Although tidal and core-mantle dissipation drive the spin to the Cassini state with a time scale O(10 5) years, the spin might still be displaced from the Cassini state if the variations in the orbital elements induced by planetary perturbations, which change the position of the Cassini state, cause the spin to lag behind as it attempts to follow the state. After being brought to the state by dissipative processes, the spin axis is expected to follow the Cassini state for orbit variations with time scales long compared to the 1000 year precession period of the spin about the Cassini state because the solid angle swept out by the spin axis as it precesses is an adiabatic invariant. Short period variations in the orbital elements of small amplitude should cause displacements that are commensurate with the amplitudes of the short period terms. The exception would be if there are forcing terms in the perturbations that are nearly resonant with the 1000 year precession period. The precision of the radar and eventual spacecraft measurements of the position of Mercury's spin axis warrants a check on the likely proximity of the spin axis to the Cassini state. How confident should we be that the spin axis position defines the Cassini state sufficiently well for a precise determination of C/MR 2 ? By following simultaneously the spin position and the Cassini state position during long time scale orbital variations over past 3 million years (Quinn et al., 1991) and short time scale variations for 20000 years (JPL Ephemeris DE 408, E. M. Standish, private communication, 2005), we show that the spin axis will remain within one arcsec of the Cassini state after it is brought there by dissipa-tive torques. In this process the spin is located in the orbit frame of reference, which in turn is referenced to the inertial ecliptic plane of J2000. There are no perturbations with periods resonant with the precession period that could cause large separations. We thus expect Mercury's spin to occupy Cassini state 1 well – 2 – within the uncertainties …